Impact of Employment Data on Major Currency Fluctuations

The economic data are among the key determinants of the value of major currencies in the forex market. Among the many releases, employment reports, especially from major world economies, basically act to guide the markets about the state of an economy and further monetary policies. The employment data, which includes the rate of unemployment and the number of new job creations, has a great influence not only on domestic markets but also on international currency trading. In this article from the Trade Toofan educational site, we go through the position of employment data and its influences on major currency fluctuations.

The Importance of Employment Data

Employment figures are usually a good representation of the economic health of the country. Investors and traders will look upon this number as a way of gleaning economic growth, stability of finances, as well as people’s purchasing power. In Forex, employment reports are considered leading indicators, and very often, along with other economic reports such as Gross Domestic Product and inflation rates, these are seen.

Read More: The Role of Interest Rates at Times of Fluctuations in Global Currencies

Of the various jobs reports in the world, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report ranks as one of the most important. Released on a monthly basis, it measures the net change in employment positions throughout various segments of the economy (excluding agriculture) and is a widely used criterion for measuring the current state of employment in the United States and, subsequently, the strength of the United States dollar.

How Employment Data Affects Currencies

Because of this, employment data has a direct impact on currency values as it influences either the monetary policies of the central bank or how economic outlooks are considered. Any announcement of upticks or downticks in the employment data can lead to changes in currency in the market. Some of these impacts are discussed as follows:

1. Employment Growth and Currency Appreciation

Whenever an employment report indicates job gains with an unemployment rate lower, the data indicators are signaling economic improvement. In this situation, the central banks may increase the interest rates to prevent inflation from the country’s economic growth. In a country like the U.S., if the NFP report shows that several new jobs have been created, that would mean that investors may expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in the future. Their expectations make the demand for the U.S dollar increase, thus making it stronger.

2. Employment Decline and Currency Weakening

Conversely, whenever the employment reports reflect a decline in the number of available jobs or an uptick in the unemployment rate, these are seen by investors as signs of economic weakness. It is expected that the central banks would lower interest rates or maintain their accommodative monetary policies in order to help the economy. With lower interest rates comes reduced investment attraction for a country’s currency and eventual capital outflow. For example, if the unemployment rate in the Eurozone increases and the respective employment figures are low, the euro will likely decline against other currencies.

3. Market Expectations

During most periods, the forex market’s response to employment reports depends on what it expects in advance. If the employment report happens to be better or worse than expectations, major currency prices tend to fluctuate significantly. For instance, if it is expected that the U.S. The U.S. dollar might appreciate if NFP is expected to add 200,000 jobs but then the actual report comes in with 250,000 jobs. If expectations are too high and such reports disappoint, the currency might weaken.

Read More: How to Use Leading and Lagging Indicators in Forex Technical Analysis

How Employment Data Affects the Major Currencies

While each country publishes its employment reports, not all these reports move the forex market equally. Generally speaking, larger economies’ employment reports in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Australia typically receive more attention from forex traders. Here, we look at a few major currencies and the implications of employment data:

1. U.S. Dollar (USD)

The U.S. NFP report is one of the most influential economic data globally and therefore has a big impact on the forex market. Every month, when this report comes out, the value of the U.S. dollar sees major fluctuations against other currencies. Changes in the U.S. labor market directly affect decisions of the Federal Reserve and eventually the value of the dollar.

2. Euro (EUR)

The Eurozone also issues its employment reports, which have an effect on the value of the euro. However, the impact is less profound compared to the U.S. NFP report because the member states of the European Union have different economies and might also experience different conditions of employment. Nevertheless, the issuance of unemployment data for the whole Eurozone can dictate the direction of the euro in the forex market.

3. Japanese Yen (JPY)

Employment data in Japan forms one of the key determinants of the value of yen since the economy is structured and is heavily reliant on exports. Being one of the important indicators, the Bank of Japan considers the employment data in order to adjust monetary policies. The change in employment conditions in Japan has mostly led to the strengthening or weakening of the yen against other currencies.

4. Australian Dollar (AUD)

Employment data also impacts Australia because it is highly dependent on the exportation of essential commodities. Good reports in employment tend to strengthen the Australian dollar, while a dwindling workforce will weaken it.

Employment Data Trading Strategies

Basically, many Forex traders rely on the development of their trading strategy based on employment reports. For instance, the “Pre-Release Trading” strategy pursues to take an appropriate position in advance of the employment report releases and takes advantage of post-report volatility. Some also use the “Post-Release Trading” strategy that buys or sells at the market’s reaction immediately after the release of the report.

Conclusion

Being among the major economic indicators, employment data plays a significant role consequently in the determination of the value of major currencies in the forex market. It was a change in the job number and unemployment rate that may potentially act to alter central bank policies and, as such, the direction of currency movements. A Forex trader should hence monitor employment data closely and adjust the strategy in accordance with forecasts and market reactions to benefit from the international currency fluctuation.